← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Jun 13, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 45% | 47% | 2.17 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 30% | 29% | 3.36 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.76 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 55% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 45% | 2.38 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Dedryck Boyata · Hertha |
| 24' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · Hertha |
| 45' | 🟥 | Dedryck Boyata · Hertha |
| 51' | ⚽ | Bas Dost · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 62' | ⚽ | André Silva · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 68' | ⚽ | Evan Ndicka · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 75' | 🟨 | Filip Kostić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 76' | 🟨 | Marvin Plattenhardt · Hertha |
| 83' | 🟨 | Stefan Ilsanker · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 86' | ⚽ | André Silva · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
| coach days | 73.00 | 713.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1675.37 | 1689.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 53.83 | 4.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| league points | 38.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.51 | 28.26 |
| state index | 0.99 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |