← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Jun 6, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Aytekin
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 86% | 86% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 9% | 10.66 | fair |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 4% | 5% | 24.28 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RB Leipzig −2.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −2.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 78% | 74% | 1.24 | fair |
| Under | 22% | 26% | 4.48 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand