← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sun, May 31, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 74% | 73% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.03 | fair |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 10% | 11% | 9.80 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 +1.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Borussia Dortmund +1.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 60% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 40% | 3.20 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | ⚽ | Thorgan Hazard · Borussia Dortmund |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Uwe Hünemeier · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 74' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mats Hummels · Borussia Dortmund |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mohamed Dräger · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 85' | ⚽ | Achraf Hakimi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 4 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Benteler-Arena |
| 89' | ⚽ | Marcel Schmelzer · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 1156.00 | 700.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1526.50 | 1909.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.94 | 19.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 19.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 3.90 | 4.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.09 | 26.29 |
| state index | -0.61 | 1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |