← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, May 30, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Winkmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 48% | 53% | 2.03 | value: +7% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 26% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Wolfsburg −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 50% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 50% | 2.44 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | João Victor · Wolfsburg |
| 26' | 🟨 | Marin Pongračić · Wolfsburg |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | André Silva · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 35' | 🟨 | Daichi Kamada · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 58' | ⚽ | Kevin Mbabu · Wolfsburg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Mijat Gaćinović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 69' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rode · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 85' | ⚽ | Daichi Kamada · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Torró · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | VOLKSWAGEN ARENA |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Lucas Torró · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | 🟥 | Lucas Torró · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan de Guzmán · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jérôme Roussillon · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 334.00 | 699.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 4.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1759.63 | 1678.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.45 | -55.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| league points | 42.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.86 | 28.18 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |