← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Wed, May 27, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 74% | 73% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.06 | fair |
| Hertha win | 10% | 11% | 10.00 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −1.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Hertha −1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 57% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 43% | 3.20 | value: +39% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Marko Grujić · Hertha |
| 24' | ⚽ | Lukas Klostermann · RB Leipzig |
| 42' | 🟨 | Peter Pekarík · Hertha |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcel Halstenberg · RB Leipzig |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jordan Torunarigha · Hertha |
| 63' | 🟨 | Marcel Halstenberg · RB Leipzig |
| 63' | 🟥 | Marcel Halstenberg · RB Leipzig |
| 68' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · RB Leipzig |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Krzysztof Piątek · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matheus Cunha · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days | 331.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1888.44 | 1660.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.19 | 13.80 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| league points | 54.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 3.13 | 4.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.09 | 28.33 |
| state index | 1.66 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |