← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Tue, May 26, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 58% | 54% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.22 | value: +7% |
| Wolfsburg win | 20% | 21% | 5.00 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −0.75 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Wolfsburg −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 42% | 2.47 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Kerem Demirbay · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 32' | 🟨 | João Victor · Wolfsburg |
| 43' | ⚽ | Marin Pongračić · Wolfsburg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Julian Baumgartlinger · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 64' | ⚽ | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Moussa Diaby · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 67' | 🟨 | Daniel Ginczek · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
| 71' | 🟨 | Koen Casteels · Wolfsburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Marin Pongračić · Wolfsburg |
| 86' | ⚽ | Julian Baumgartlinger |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 12 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | BayArena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 511.00 |
| 330.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1810.47 | 1647.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 53.30 | -14.98 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 53.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.77 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 21.11 | 25.59 |
| state index | 1.79 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.25 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |