← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Tue, May 26, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 47% | 40% | 2.08 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 27% | 22% | 3.69 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 39% | 3.75 | value: +46% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Freiburg −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 52% | 2.04 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 35 | Shots | 10 |
| 16 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand