← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, May 23, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 50% | 54% | 2.01 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 25% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg +0.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 59% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 41% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Raphaël Guerreiro · Borussia Dortmund |
| 55' | 🟨 | Thomas Delaney · Borussia Dortmund |
| 61' | 🟨 | Daniel Ginczek · Wolfsburg |
| 66' | 🟨 | John Brooks · Wolfsburg |
| 74' | 🟨 | Thorgan Hazard · Borussia Dortmund |
| 78' | ⚽ | Achraf Hakimi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 82' | 🟥 | Felix Klaus · Wolfsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Xaver Schlager · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | VOLKSWAGEN ARENA |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 327.00 | 692.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1742.77 | 1907.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.21 | 34.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| league points | 39.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.95 | 26.39 |
| state index | 0.91 | 1.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |