← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sun, May 17, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Winkmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.99 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 23% | 23% | 4.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 42% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark Uth · 1. FC Köln |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 19' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 37' | 🟨 | Dong-Won Ji · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 61' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 72' | ⚽ | Pierre Kunde · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ellyes Skhiri · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aarón Martín · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 198.00 | 198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1667.51 | 1647.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.30 | 11.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | -0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 24.99 |
| state index | 1.07 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |