← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 29, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 72% | 61% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 24% | 6.85 | value: +67% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 13% | 15% | 8.00 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Bayern München +1.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +1.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 76% | 60% | 1.27 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 40% | 4.03 | value: +63% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 4 | Shots | 25 |
| 1 | On target | 11 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 3 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand