← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Fri, Feb 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Stieler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 44% | 36% | 2.25 | fair |
| Hertha win | 29% | 32% | 3.43 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hertha −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 56% | 1.91 | value: +7% |
| Over | 49% | 44% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Kenan Karaman · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 9' | ⚽ | Erik Thommy · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 35' | 🟨 | Lukas Klünter · Hertha |
| 40' | 🟨 | Erik Thommy · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kenan Karaman · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 52' | 🟨 | Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 60' | 🟨 | Matheus Cunha · Hertha |
| 64' | ⚽ (og) | Erik Thommy · Hertha |
| 66' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Hertha |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Krzysztof Piątek · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 58.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1603.28 | 1622.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.06 | -20.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 20.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.73 | 25.53 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |