← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 22, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 61% | 63% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.59 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 18% | 15% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 68% | 55% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 45% | 3.00 | value: +35% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 22 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK |