← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 1, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 44% | 46% | 2.18 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 44% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ (og) | Tin Jedvaj · SV Werder Bremen |
| 48' | 🟨 | Maximilian Eggestein · SV Werder Bremen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ömer Toprak · SV Werder Bremen |
| 67' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · FC Augsburg |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fin Bartels · SV Werder Bremen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Daniel Baier · FC Augsburg |
| 82' | ⚽ | Rubén Vargas · FC Augsburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · SV Werder Bremen |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 298.00 | 853.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1633.24 | 1652.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.87 | -50.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| league points | 23.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.98 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 26.22 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.83 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |