← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Jan 25, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 56% | 54% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.33 | value: +12% |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 21% | 20% | 4.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 58% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 42% | 2.54 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Klaus Gjasula · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 31' | 🟨 | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 48' | ⚽ | Christopher Antwi-Adjei · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 59' | 🟥 | Jamilu Collins · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdelhamid Sabiri · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Waldschmidt · SC Freiburg |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 2977.00 | 1029.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1682.76 | 1521.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.07 | 18.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 29.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.48 | 25.47 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |