← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Jan 18, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 37% | 37% | 2.62 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 36% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SV Werder Bremen +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 51% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 49% | 2.27 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand