← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Jan 18, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 41% | 43% | 2.36 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 30% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Wolfsburg +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | John Brooks · Wolfsburg |
| 22' | ⚽ | Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln |
| 25' | 🟨 | Xaver Schlager · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 66' | ⚽ | Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ismail Jakobs · 1. FC Köln |
| 89' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 78.00 | 201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1597.26 | 1726.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.56 | 1.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| league points | 17.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.29 | 26.52 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |