← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Tue, Dec 17, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 51% | 61% | 1.93 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.85 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 24% | 16% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 34' | 🟨 | Niko Giesselmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 40' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morales · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 46' | 🟨 | Rani Khedira · FC Augsburg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Nana Ampomah · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 61' | ⚽ | Tin Jedvaj · FC Augsburg |
| 72' | ⚽ | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bernard Tekpetey · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 87' | 🟨 | Stephan Lichtsteiner · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rubén Vargas · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 252.00 | 1386.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1648.98 | 1607.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 57.84 | -11.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| league points | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.54 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 26.16 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |