← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 1, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 46% | 48% | 2.12 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 52% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 48% | 2.22 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Milot Rashica · SV Werder Bremen |
| 36' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 39' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Christian Groß · SV Werder Bremen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Yuya Osako · SV Werder Bremen |
| 73' | ⚽ | William · Wolfsburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Milot Rashica · SV Werder Bremen |
| 83' | ⚽ | Milot Rashica · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | VOLKSWAGEN ARENA |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 153.00 | 791.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1737.47 | 1707.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.95 | -26.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 70.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 27.98 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |