← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Nov 30, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Stieler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 48% | 51% | 2.03 | value: +4% |
| FC Augsburg win | 27% | 22% | 3.69 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 51% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 49% | 2.32 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Rafael Czichos · 1. FC Köln |
| 17' | 🟨 | Birger Verstraete · 1. FC Köln |
| 20' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 23' | 🟨 | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Rafael Czichos · 1. FC Köln |
| 39' | 🟥 | Rafael Czichos · 1. FC Köln |
| 43' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · FC Augsburg |
| 44' | 🟨 | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 44' | 🟥 | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dominick Drexler · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 🟨 |
| Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastiaan Bornauw · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 29.00 | 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1487.53 | 1515.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.51 | 33.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| league points | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -1.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |