← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Nov 23, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 46% | 52% | 2.13 | value: +10% |
| Wolfsburg win | 27% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 60% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 40% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 19' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Marcel Tisserand · Wolfsburg |
| 40' | 🟨 | Djibril Sow · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcel Tisserand · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | 🟥 | Marcel Tisserand · Wolfsburg |
| 65' | ⚽ | João Victor · Wolfsburg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Martin Hinteregger · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 86' | 🟨 | Filip Kostić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 89' |
| 🟨 |
| Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 510.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1695.09 | 1616.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.25 | -48.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 12.90 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 25.16 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |