← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sun, Nov 10, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 40% | 43% | 2.46 | value: +5% |
| SC Freiburg win | 34% | 27% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Freiburg +0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 56% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 44% | 2.38 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand