← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sun, Nov 10, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Stieler
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 49% | 55% | 2.04 | value: +13% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 27% | 17% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 55% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 45% | 2.56 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK |