← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Nov 9, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 58% | 64% | 1.68 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 18% | 14% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.75 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morales · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 62' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · FC Schalke 04 |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 67' | ⚽ | Ozan Kabak · FC Schalke 04 |
| 74' | ⚽ | Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 76' | 🟨 | Oliver Fink · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 79' | 🟨 | Suat Serdar · FC Schalke 04 |
| 79' | ⚽ | Suat Serdar · FC Schalke 04 |
| 85' | ⚽ | Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 89' | 🟨 | Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kaan Ayhan · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 131.00 | 1348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1716.81 | 1619.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.47 | -21.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.94 | 28.20 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |