← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 60% | 55% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.42 | value: +25% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 18% | 16% | 5.34 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 −0.75 | 55% | 1.78 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.75 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 40% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · FC Schalke 04 |
| 22' | 🟨 | Noah Katterbach · 1. FC Köln |
| 35' | 🟨 | Suat Serdar · FC Schalke 04 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Salif Sané · FC Schalke 04 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Bastian Oczipka · FC Schalke 04 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln |
| 71' | ⚽ | Suat Serdar · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days | 96.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1722.28 | 1562.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 53.58 | -22.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.87 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.46 |
| league points | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 6.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | — |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.30 | 26.49 |
| state index | 1.13 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |