← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 14, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 41% | 34% | 2.38 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 34% | 40% | 2.87 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 49% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 51% | 2.58 | value: +31% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Davy Klaassen · SV Werder Bremen |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Sebastian Andersson · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 19' | 🟨 | Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen |
| 54' | 🟨 | Christopher Trimmel · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 55' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nuri Şahin · SV Werder Bremen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Neven Subotić · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 83' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Neven Subotić · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 89' | 🟥 | Neven Subotić · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 23 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadion An der Alten Försterei |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nuri Şahin · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nuri Şahin · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 440.00 | 713.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.52 |
| elo | 1549.17 | 1623.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.61 | 1.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 13.88 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.80 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |