← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 73% | 67% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 19% | 6.17 | value: +19% |
| FC Augsburg win | 11% | 13% | 8.70 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 29' | 🟨 | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 37' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 41' | ⚽ | Robin Knoche · Wolfsburg |
| 55' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 57' | ⚽ | Daniel Ginczek · Wolfsburg |
| 60' | ⚽ | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · Wolfsburg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Simon Asta · FC Augsburg |
| 81' | ⚽ | Julian Schieber · FC Augsburg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Josip Brekalo · Wolfsburg |
| 89' | ⚽ (og) | Kevin Danso · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days |
| 471.00 |
| 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1612.79 | 1506.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.33 | 20.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 44.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| league points | 52.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |