← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 44% | 29% | 2.22 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 32% | 41% | 3.07 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 24% | 30% | 4.01 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Stefan Ilsanker · RB Leipzig |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Milot Rashica · SV Werder Bremen |
| 43' | 🟨 | Marco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marcelo Saracchi · RB Leipzig |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ludwig Augustinsson · SV Werder Bremen |
| 86' | ⚽ | Nordi Mukiele · RB Leipzig |
| 88' | ⚽ | Claudio Pizarro · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 594.00 |
| 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1635.97 | 1747.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.59 | 17.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.80 |
| league points | 50.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.74 |
| state index | 0.26 | 1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |