← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 57% | 51% | 1.72 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 23% | 28% | 4.14 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.88 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 19 |
| 12 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 747.00 | 1202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1661.26 | 1786.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.60 | -20.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 40.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.44 | 26.47 |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |