← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 56% | 56% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.24 | value: +3% |
| Nurnberg win | 21% | 20% | 4.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Marco Terrazzino · SC Freiburg |
| 26' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · SC Freiburg |
| 31' | 🟨 | Pascal Stenzel · SC Freiburg |
| 34' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · SC Freiburg |
| 54' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 61' | ⚽ | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 69' | ⚽ | Eduard Löwen · Nurnberg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ivo Iličević · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 2725.00 |
| 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1486.97 | 1428.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.40 | -14.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| league points | 33.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.05 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |