← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 71% | 58% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 29% | 6.17 | value: +79% |
| Hannover win | 13% | 13% | 7.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Edgar Prib · Hannover |
| 56' | ⚽ | Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 60' | ⚽ | Kenan Karaman · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 73' | 🟨 | Kaan Ayhan · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 78' | ⚽ | Nicolai Müller · Hannover |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kevin Stöger · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| coach days |
| 1173.00 |
| 808.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1548.87 | 1432.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.42 | 29.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| league points | 41.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |