← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 74% | 75% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.75 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 9% | 8% | 10.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 14 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 321.00 |
| 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1895.43 | 1682.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.16 | -46.55 |
| eye test v1 | 1.96 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.74 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| league points | 75.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.33 | -1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 9.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 25.76 |
| state index | 1.59 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |