← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 63% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.76 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 16% | 14% | 5.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Anthony Ujah · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 57' | ⚽ | Anthony Ujah · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Filip Kostić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 315.00 | 741.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1804.37 | 1637.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.12 | 19.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 54.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.15 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.65 | 25.40 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.51 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |