← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 42% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +4% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 32% | 32% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Alexander Esswein · VfB Stuttgart |
| 24' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart |
| 55' | ⚽ | Anastasios Donis · VfB Stuttgart |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marcel Tisserand · Wolfsburg |
| 83' | ⚽ | Daniel Didavi · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| coach days |
| 222.00 |
| 464.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1474.14 | 1635.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.09 | 31.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| league points | 24.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 22.01 | — |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |