← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 60% | 62% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.63 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 20% | 16% | 4.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 60' | 🟨 | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| coach days | 314.00 | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 0.60 |
| 7.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.81 |
| elo | 1745.05 | 1898.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.52 | 12.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 2.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 2.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| league points | 65.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 66.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 2.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 18.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 23.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 2.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 9.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 9.40 |
| squad age | 24.36 | 25.76 |
| state index | 1.09 | 1.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |