← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 71% | 74% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.50 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 12% | 11% | 8.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 34' | 🟨 | Julian Baumgartlinger · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 47' | ⚽ | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 52' | 🟨 | Kevin Volland · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alexander Nübel · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 130.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1791.63 | 1664.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.46 | 1.27 |
| eye test v1 | 1.29 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.62 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| league points | 54.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.41 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 25.15 |
| state index | 1.36 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.73 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |