← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 43% | 45% | 2.27 | fair |
| Hannover win | 31% | 33% | 3.14 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Waldemar Anton · Hannover |
| 40' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · SC Freiburg |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ihlas Bebou · Hannover |
| 54' | 🟨 | Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg |
| 81' | ⚽ | Walace · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days |
| 801.00 |
| 2718.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1413.59 | 1506.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.00 | -36.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| league points | 18.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.26 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.67 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |