← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 71% | 74% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.77 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 13% | 10% | 7.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 314.00 | 1166.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1860.60 | 1638.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.97 | 18.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| league points | 70.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.86 | 27.93 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |