← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 38% | 44% | 2.57 | value: +14% |
| Hertha win | 36% | 29% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 47' | ⚽ | Marvin Plattenhardt · Hertha |
| 49' | 🟨 | Karim Rekik · Hertha |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 66' | ⚽ | Marko Grujić · Hertha |
| 70' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 24 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 32.00 | 1560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1624.96 | 1665.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.46 | -10.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.80 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 32.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 28.05 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |