← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +6% |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 31% | 28% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 31' | ⚽ | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 40' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 47' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 47' | 🟥 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 80' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morales · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Fink · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 2712.00 |
| 1160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1506.51 | 1552.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.50 | 31.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| league points | 32.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |