← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 60% | 66% | 1.63 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.34 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 18% | 14% | 5.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Felix Klaus · Wolfsburg |
| 78' | ⚽ | Marcel Tisserand · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 457.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 0.20 |
| -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1737.07 | 1534.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.68 | 29.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| league points | 49.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.95 | 24.93 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |