← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 43% | 39% | 2.29 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 31% | 36% | 3.15 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ondrej Duda · Hertha |
| 67' | ⚽ | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
| 70' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · VfB Stuttgart |
| 83' | 🟨 | Rune Jarstein · Hertha |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 1553.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1655.52 | 1585.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.84 | -19.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 37.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.96 | 26.26 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |