← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 93% | 87% | 1.03 | fair |
| Draw | 5% | 10% | 21.00 | value: +112% |
| Hannover win | 2% | 3% | 51.00 | value: +68% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 40' | ⚽ | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathas · Hannover |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jonathas · Hannover |
| 83' | ⚽ | Franck Ribéry · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Wimmer · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 2 |
| 14 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Arena (München) |
| coach days | 307.00 | 794.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.45 |
| elo | 2009.96 | 1518.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.86 | -1.09 |
| eye test v1 | 2.00 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| league points | 71.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 15.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 23.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.32 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 9.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 27.98 |
| state index | 2.04 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |