← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 67% | 65% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.23 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 15% | 15% | 6.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Ádám Szalai · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 18' | 🟨 | William · Wolfsburg |
| 26' | 🟨 | Nico Schulz · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 42' | ⚽ | William · Wolfsburg |
| 44' | 🟨 | Pavel Kadeřábek · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 62' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 69' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 88' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 22 |
| 7 | On target | 10 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| coach days |
| 1182.00 |
| 451.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1719.84 | 1603.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.31 | 4.53 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 50.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | 1.48 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |