← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 48% | 46% | 2.03 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 27% | 31% | 3.62 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Andreas Beck · VfB Stuttgart |
| 17' | 🟨 | Borna Sosa · VfB Stuttgart |
| 56' | ⚽ | Anastasios Donis · VfB Stuttgart |
| 59' | 🟨 | Christoph Kramer · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| coach days |
| 208.00 |
| 877.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 4.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1471.38 | 1621.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.28 | -26.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| league points | 21.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 22.01 | 22.99 |
| state index | -0.99 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |