← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 43% | 39% | 2.28 | fair |
| Hannover win | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.78 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Marvin Bakalorz · Hannover |
| 54' | 🟨 | Pirmin Schwegler · Hannover |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Gbamin · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Hendrik Weydandt · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days | 787.00 | 726.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1506.26 | 1645.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.21 | 16.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| league points | 15.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.05 | 25.42 |
| state index | -0.84 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |