← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 70% | 65% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.40 | value: +14% |
| Hertha win | 12% | 14% | 7.78 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Lukas Klünter · Hertha |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · Hertha |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marvin Plattenhardt · Hertha |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lukas Klünter · Hertha |
| 80' | 🟥 | Lukas Klünter · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabian Lustenberger · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 300.00 | 1546.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1822.93 | 1649.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.40 | -43.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| league points | 53.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.41 | 27.76 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |