β Bundesliga 2018-19 Β· Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 58% | 62% | 1.68 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.22 | fair |
| Hannover win | 19% | 14% | 5.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | π¨ | Per Ciljan Skjelbred Β· Hertha |
| 22' | π¨ | Marvin Bakalorz Β· Hannover |
| 43' | π¨ | Marko GrujiΔ Β· Hertha |
| 55' | π¨ | Mathew Leckie Β· Hertha |
| 83' | π¨ | Niklas Stark Β· Hertha |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 1540.00 | 781.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1655.16 | 1500.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.20 | -32.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| league points | 35.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 27.34 |
| state index | -0.75 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |