← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 47% | 43% | 2.06 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 28% | 29% | 3.48 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.93 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days |
| 50.00 |
| 1174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1547.51 | 1707.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.92 | 33.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 1.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 27.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 20.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 24.91 | — |
| state index | -0.48 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |