← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 41% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 33% | 32% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcel Halstenberg · RB Leipzig |
| 53' | ⚽ | Marcel Halstenberg · RB Leipzig |
| 61' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 75' | 🟨 | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 85' | 🟨 | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| coach days |
| 870.00 |
| 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1629.73 | 1737.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.54 | 34.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.82 |
| league points | 51.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 22.99 | 23.55 |
| state index | 0.15 | 1.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |