← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 76% | 78% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.22 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 9% | 7% | 11.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | ⚽ | Lucas Alario · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 86' | ⚽ | Kevin Volland · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 109.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| venue | BayArena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1753.06 | 1530.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.25 | 21.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.78 |
| league points | 45.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.63 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.03 | 24.86 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.17 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |